The Paul Martin Liberals retain the enormous lead bequeathed by the Chretien government. At 49% of the popular vote, they are set for a landslide in an upcoming federal election, as shown in table 1 below.

The Conservatives are far behind with 19% of the vote but this number underestimates their actual support. Extensive surveying on policy issues reveals that a sizeable share of the “other” vote is rightwing on tax and spending issues, and would likely turn to the new Conservative party. Thus the actual Conservative vote is probably about 22%--still far below the Liberals but ahead of the NDP, who are nonetheless growing.

The Liberals’ greatest strength is in seat-rich Ontario. Despite Martin’s efforts to appeal to the West, the Liberals still trail the Conservatives badly in the Conservatives’ Alberta fortress—by a margin of more than 2:1, as shown in table 2. In Quebec, the Liberals and Bloc are in a tight race with a Liberal lead of 5%, almost large enough to rout the Bloc.

Interviews with a representative sample of N>500 Canadian voters were completed January 26-28, 2003. The findings can be considered accurate to within 4.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The principal investigator on this study was Dr. Conrad Winn, 416-598-0310.

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