Harper Has a Small, Gomery-Driven, Vulnerable Lead
In response to a clean question, prior to any reference to Gomery, the Conservatives elicit a 4 percentage point lead over the Liberals, as shown in the responses to Q6 in table 1. (See full survey for table.)
- “If a federal election were held today, would you vote for…”
- “Prior to the revelations from the Gomery Commission last week, how would you have voted if an election had been held? Would you have voted for…”
- “Given the revelations from the Gomery Commission, how would you vote if an election were held today? For…”
Conservative Lead is Gomery-Driven
The commonly held view that the Conservatives’ tiny lead is Gomery-driven is supported by evidence from the survey itself. A Liberal:Conservative lead of 37:29 two weeks ago (Q8) became a Cons: Lib lead of 34:30 in response to a clean question (Q6) and then rose to 36:26 in Q12, when respondents are reminded of the Gomery revelations in the vote question itself (Q12), as shown in table 1. (See full survey for table.)
In the mishmash of vote shifting over the last two weeks, the Conservatives have for the first time matched the loyalty of the Bloc voters - 95% of survey respondents who were intending to vote CPC two weeks ago intend to today (Q6, clean question) vs. 92% among Bloc voters, 91% among NDPers, and 75% among Liberals.
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