Minister of the Environment John Baird is set to win a major victory with 54% support vs. 30% for former Minister of National Defence David Pratt, according to a representative survey of n>200 voters conducted for the Ottawa Citizen by COMPAS Research, as shown in table 1. (Please see complete poll for table) NDP and Green candidates Marlene Rivier and Frances Coates trail in the distance.

A good part of the expected victory is attributable to the increased popularity of the Conservative party in this semi-swing riding, held for years by Liberal Marlene Catterall (1988 to 2006). The current exceptional popularity of the Conservative party in the riding is shown in table 2. Baird is more successful than Pratt at holding his party vote; Baird holds a share of pure Conservative voters that is larger than the share of pure Liberal voters retained by Pratt. Pratt makes up for some of his loss by attracting some of the pure NDP vote, as shown in table 2. (Please see complete poll for table) But Baird also attracts voters from other than his own party - some Liberals and some New Democrats.