The well-liked son of the late mayor Marion Dewar, Paul Dewar is en route to a landslide with 44% support compared to Liberal candidate Penny Collonette’s 28%, according to a COMPAS poll commissioned by the Ottawa Citizen.

Paul Dewar’s predicted support is higher than the 37% he earned in 2006 and higher even than the 41% earned in 2004 by widely respected former NDP leader Ed Broadbent. The Conservative and Green candidates are trailing, as shown in table 1. (Please see complete poll for tables.)

Dewar is doing well as a result of holding the vast majority (85%) of the normal NDP vote, and augmenting this with backing from normal supporters of all three other parties, as shown in table 2. (Please see complete poll for tables.)

Conservative candidate Brian McGarry is virtually as effective as Dewar in holding his own party’s core segment (80%). But Ottawa Centre is not a naturally Conservative riding, as shown in table 3, (Please see complete poll for tables.) and McGarry’s core to work with is small. In a hypothetical election in which nothing was known about any of the candidates, the voters of Ottawa Centre would split their vote thus: Liberal 34%, NDP 32%, Conservative 19%, and Green 11%. Thus, Ottawa Centre is best described as normally a Liberal-NDP riding.

(Please see complete poll for tables.)