As the calendar approaches Christmas and the New Year, CEOs and business leaders on the COMPAS business panel were asked for their economic predictions. These are the main ones:

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to hover around 1% in 2010, and then creep up to around 2% in 2011;
• The unemployment rate is not expected to change for at least a year with a hint of decline in Spring, 2011;
• The 2009-2010 Government of Canada budget deficit is expected to exceed official estimates by immense margins;
• Very few expect economic growth to reach or exceed normal rates till well after June, 2010. For March, more than four-fifths of panelists anticipate negative or flat growth. This drops to a seventh in June. But the overwhelming majority expect June’s figures to show modest growth, i.e. positive but below normal;
• The TSX is expected to remain unchanged until March and then to jump 1400 points (12%) from 11,640 to 13, 067.

These are the key findings from this past week’s Internet survey of CEOs and business leaders on the COMPAS panel. The weekly business survey is undertaken for Canadian Business magazine under sponsorship of BDO Dunwoody LLP.

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