Compas Poll / Survey

Large Lead for Clark in a Low Interest Election

Joe Clark is set to re-enter the House of Commons thanks to a large lead over NDP and Alliance candidates in a by-election that appears to be inspiring moderate interest among local voters.

The good news for the former Prime Minister is that his lead is substantial. He garners almost half of the decided vote: 49% for Clark vs. 24% for NDP candidate Kaye Johnson, 19% for Alliance candidate Gerry Fulton, and 7% for the independent candidates in the election.

The bad news for Mr. Clark is that the Tories’ natural constituency of Alliance voters remains intensely antagonistic to his party and rejuvenated in their enthusiasm for the Alliance. Respondents were asked (Q4) to explain their intended vote using the following question: “Would you vote for [name of party] because you [rotated] have special confidence in this particular candidate, usually vote for that party, have special confidence in the party leader these days, have special confidence in the party these days, or don’t have confidence in another party or candidate.”

Alliance voters make a special point of explaining their choice in terms of a lack of confidence in another party—39% vs. 20% in the case of Tory voters. For most Alliance voters, the party that they are voting against is the Tories (57%).

One-fourth of voters are either “undecided” (17%) or “refuse” (8%) to indicate their preferred candidate.