Compas Poll / Survey

Liberals Risk Losing their Large Lead among a Fluid, Depolarising Electorate with Separate Regional Battlefields…and Cultivating Trudeau Nostalgia Could Backfire

The Liberals are beginning the pre-campaign, campaign with an immense lead over the second place Alliance, who themselves are far ahead of the Tories and NDP. For the Alliance, the bad news is that their numbers are not dramatically higher than for their Reform party predecessor. Their good news is that Day has a broader, gentler appeal than his predecessor, and Canadian voters are in a temperate, tolerant mood with less polarization and fear among the voter groupings than in past seasons.

The gradual de-polarisation of voters is perhaps the biggest risk that the Liberals face in Ontario and the west, where Liberal voters and traditional leftwing groupings like union families fear the Alliance less than ever. Quebec voters meanwhile remain somewhat polarised. But, even in Quebec there are signs of depolarisation, in this instance to the benefit of the Liberals.

The Liberals’ risk is of losing their majority while the risk for the Tories and NDP is of electing so few Members as to be very far from achieving party status. A big longterm challenge for the Liberals is a certain ennui. Many voters just want a change.

The passing of former Prime Minister Trudeau offered the governing party an opportunity to provide change in the form of nostalgia. But nostalgia for the former prime minister was not completely well received. Sizeable minorities, even of Liberal voters, feel over-exposed to news, information, and reminiscences relating to the former head of government.

Perhaps the strongest electoral asset of the Liberal party is that it is widely perceived as embodying the values and beliefs of the average Canadian. Translating this broad goodwill into unalterable support at the ballot box will be no mean feat. Liberals might be tempted to contrast their own moderation and temperance with the ostensible radicalism or extremism of their opponents, the Bloc in Quebec and the Alliance outside. It may difficult to try to persuade voters that the new Day-led Alliance party is extremist. Such a strategy might be counterproductive and backfire, especially since the Alliance is widely perceived as having momentum.

Whatever the Liberals’ strategy, they will inevitably have to work with and around the fact that their fate is tied inextricably to their leader’s. As explained in some detail below, Jean Chretien’s perceived honesty, arrogance, and common sense will be vital elements in the success of his party.