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The Liberals are faltering and the Tories are on a dramatic upswing, all mainly in the last couple of weeks. The Liberals are now at 46% of the decided vote, down 5 points from May, while the Tories are at 41%, up 5 points since the end of the hydro crisis, as shown in table 1. The difference between the two parties is now so close to the margin of error and the Tories appear to be rising so quickly that it is not possible to know for sure if the parties are tied or the Liberals still in the lead.
The rapid rise of the Tories signifies that Tory strategy is on track and could realize a third consecutive Conservative government. However, a longstanding undercurrent of public irritation with the outgoing rulers means that Tory resurgence is vulnerable to subsequent Tory campaign failure or strong Liberal counter-attack.
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