|
|
|
||||
|
||||
| Campaign Yoyo: After a Dramatic, Early, Eves-Led Rebound, Perceived Tory Hubris (e.g. the TV attack ad) Is Propelling the Liberals towards a Landslide. Second in a Series of COMPAS Polls on the Ontario Provincial Election |
||||
| Less than two weeks ago, the Tories and Grits were at virtual parity. The perceived superiority of Ernie Eves’ leadership drove the Tory recovery after a long period of sustained Liberal superiority in voter affections. Coming after the SARS, West Nile, and hydro blackout crises, leadership was rising as a campaign issue, and Eves was far more esteemed as a leader than Liberal Dalton McGuinty, as evidenced in the tables below. Voters felt that they knew what the Tories stood for, much less so in the case of the opposition parties. Two weeks ago, the COMPAS report to Global, the Post, and the Citizen said: “The Liberals are faltering and the Tories are on a dramatic upswing, all mainly in the last couple of weeks.” The past two weeks more than reversed the effects of the preceding two weeks. The Tories are back where they were in voter preferences a month ago, as shown in table 1. Eves has lost his dramatic lead as the leader best suited to be Premier, as shown in table 2. After rising as the factor driving the vote three and four weeks ago, leadership has plummeted as a consideration—down to 12% after being singled out by 28% of the electorate just two weeks ago as the factor driving their choice of political party to vote for. The economy is rising somewhat as an issue and benefits the Tories insofar as voters concerned most about the economy, especially taxes, are strongly committed to Eves. But PC support has fallen among those voters—the majority—concerned about matters other than the economy when contemplating their vote. Though Eves has lost his immense margin over McGuinty as best leader for the province, he is still highly esteemed. If leadership were the only issue, the parties would be tied instead of the Liberals heading for a landslide. It is as if many Ontarians still think that Eves is well suited for the job but just don’t want to re-elect the Tories. So they take the view that leadership is unimportant or say to COMPAS interviewers today that they are not sure who would make the best leader. At 36%, the proportion of voters saying that they don’t know who would make the best leader for the province is 11 percentage points up from just two weeks ago (see table 2). In practice, the Liberals are at 50% in voter intentions, up from 46% two weeks ago. The Tories have dropped seemingly like a stone to 33%, their lowest point this calendar year and down from a highpoint of 41% two weeks ago. At 14%, the New Democrats appear to be creeping upwards as they often do at election time. If the present distribution held to balloting day, the Liberals would win such a resounding landslide in legislative seats that McGuinty might be tempted to gloat at his various internal and external detractors of recent seasons. As discussed below, the key driver of the Tory collapse of the last two weeks is a perception of Tory arrogance. As explored below in some detail, the Tory attack ad on McGuinty backfired to an extraordinary degree. It likely backfired in part because it was broadcast during a period when other events—the reptilian kitten-eater and “professional help” remarks in official PC press releases—helped paint a portrait of a government that suffered from insufferable arrogance. The Premier refused to apologize for these remarks, thereby reinforcing a perception of government hubris. In practice, the remaining two weeks may be enough time for the Tories to learn a lesson but it is not a long time for them to make a recovery. |
||||
|
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
||||
