Compas Poll / Survey

The Alberta government launched a special advisory panel to explore modifications to the oil and gas taxation regime. Its recommendations of a sizeable increase in taxes prompted major oil patch players to warn of cancellation of their planned investments and financial analysts to warn of damage to Alberta’s reputation as a safe place to make investments.

The COMPAS panel’s response might be best characterized as a case of “plague on all your houses,” as shown in table 1a (see complete survey). Panelists

tend to think that a modest slowdown in Alberta’ oil economy might bring some stability to the province and the country,
tend to believe that the proposed jump in taxes may nonetheless be harmful to Alberta’s reputation as a place for investments,
tend to forecast that oil investments in the province might slow down slightly if the proposed tax regime is adopted,
are divided in their opinions about whether “the oil patch would adjust to a new royalty regime without significant decreases in investment,” and
are slightly more apt to reject rather than embrace the idea that “Albertans are not getting their fair share of the profits from oil,” and
tend to reject rather than embrace the idea that “the proposed royalty regime would do much harm to both Alberta’s economy and Canada’s as a whole.”

While far less perturbed about the proposed tax regime than oil and gas players and financial analysis, the CEOs and business leaders on the COMPAS panel are nonetheless not impressed with the way the Alberta government handled the issue. Premier Stelmach earns a failing grade of 49% for his performance on the issue, as shown in table 1b. (see complete survey)